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Denver 2040 draft self report and assessment

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  • Denver 2040 draft self report and assessment

    While my memories are still fresh, I am writing this to share my "rationale" with fellow GMs but mostly as a lesson to myself for future.

    1st need: DE, FB, OT, OG
    2nd need: CB, WLB, WR, C
    3rd need: TE, RB

    1.22 - Brandon Linder, G.
    Before the draft, I listed DE as the #1 needed position for Denver. Happy to see the draft was loaded with very good potentials in that position. As typically, I marked all the players that I deemed worthy for round 1 picks (in fact I do this exercise for all rounds in draft analyzer, which I find very helpful.) I was mildly optimistic that one of the top DEs could fall to 1.22. However, seeing the last round 1-worthy DE off the board just before Denver to NYJ, I shifted my focus to four guys: G Linder, G Adderley, OT Lewan and DE Sheldon. First guy eliminated was Sheldon. Despite DE being my biggest need, I pegged him as bottom 1/top 2. It would be a slight reach and I decided it's not worthy it to reach at this point. OT Lewan was the next out. I am not confident with his pass block potential, plus I have two young guys that I am grooming at that position. Lewan would be better, but not a glaring need. So, down to the two guards, Linder and Adderley. OG is not a glaring need either, as Lyon Grady seems to serve fine as LG and Stark has clearly established himself as our future RG. But I don't have anyone else pegged as round 1 worthy. It's getting late and I was too tired to list the pick for trade so I would just pick one of these two guys. As a run-oriented team, I like Adderley more. He is also more developed and could start right away. However, like Lewan, his pass block skill does not seem to give me high confidence. Granted pass block is a less important skill to OG than to OT. But Linder seems to be a safer all-around choice for me. He does not run block as well as Adderley and less developed but he is a year younger. Time will tell whether I have made the right decision. Adderley went off the board 2 picks later to rival San Diego. I would like to think my pick has influenced Shark'
    s decision to trade up 8) (admit it Shark!)

    2.22 - Jameson Paulin, DE.
    FB is another needed postion, and fortunately this year is a good year for FBs. However, I thought I could address that position in 3rd/4th round so I decided to address the DE position here. Four guys on my list: Paulin, Quentin, Thornburg and Timmerman. Timmerson was gone at 2.17, so it's between a trio. Quentin might be the better pass rusher by a slight margin but his run D concerned me. Out. Between Paulin and Thornburg, I thought Thornburg would have a higher future rating and he is very young (2019 vs 2017 typical) But his low endurance told me that he might not be able to fill the role as a starting DE. Paulin is the safer pick. Went with Paulin. Then two other high FBs were gone not much later.

    3.22 - Austin Lane, FB.
    I reached here. I had both Lane and Tokunaga pegged as 4th rounders. However, all the FBs that I really liked were gone much sooner than I anticipated. I really did not want to reach here but FB is in fact a big hole for Denver, maybe a bigger hole than DE. Should I have picked FB Battle or Gillespie in 2nd when I had the chance? Hindsight is always 20/20 so there is no need to linger. I briefly thought about drafting CB Verrett. I need a nickelback. There is a good chance that two remaining FBs could fall into 4th or later rounds. There is a big apparent talent gap between the 2nd-round FBs and these two guys. But no, I can't risk that. Tokunaga has excellent combines that don't quite match his bars. It perplexed me and I had him "as scouted." I used my FB mostly as receiver, so his catching skill bar concerns me. Should I trust the combines or bars, at some other positions it would be a no-brainer for me. But for the FB position I don't know. I have drafted high-combine-low-bar guys before that backfired (on the other hand I have seen success with other teams like NYJ) In the end, Lane's pass catching skill appeals more. He came back as 30/46. Lower than I hoped for. Actually seems a disappointment for a 3rd-round FB. You could easily get a mid-40s FB in 6th. But anyway, I will see if his helps with my short passing game in future.

    4.22 - Conner Thornburg, DE
    I am very happy that this guy fell all the way to the 4th. Remember I had him pegged as 2nd round. I thought he would be gone in late 3rd the latest. So it was an easy choice for me here. Other positions that I briefly considered were RBs and CBs. I already drafted a DE, but Thornburg was just too good a value to pass up at this point. He will be part of the rotation given his low endurance, but when he plays, I am confident he will make a good impact.

    5.3 - Dave Gochanour, SS
    I could use a backup safety and corner. Other corners like England, Woodson and Mosher were on my short list. Gochanour has a poor run bar for safety, maybe that's why he was rated so low. His other skill bars were quite enticing, however. And his weight is low enough that I thought about converting him to CB. At the training camp, I kept him as safety since the program told me I could only retain 90% of his rating if converted.

    5.22 - Dan Freeman, DT
    DT was not listed as my initial needed position. But losing Dillon during FA changed my position. I need a backup since Duncan does not seem very good. Of the remaining choices, Kennedy and Freeman were the only two DTs I liked. Kennedy was gone just one pick before me (happened SOOOOO many times) so Freeman it is. At this point, I don't feel excited about my picks anymore, these guys will likely as career backups and got cut a couple of seasons. This is no guy left that I secretly adored and wished to fall to me.

    6.22 - Craig Ratliff, RB
    I need a return guy. My PR/KR department is sorely lacking. I don't actually needed a RB but apparently all the good return CB/WR are gone. Ratliff's bars actually don't look bad at all. His hole recognition (the skill I personally valued the most in a RB) is very decent. He turned out quite well in the ratings (35/48) He will be my 3rd RB and has a good shot at #2 later the season after this. In hindsight I would be happy to have him in 4th. The happy surprise pick for me this season.

    7.22 - Jackie Sprague - OLB
    I need a run D WLB (since that's what WLB does ONLY in 4-3 anyway) and my strategy is to pick one up in late rounds. Sprague is the best guy left in that position. His rating turned out to be worse than I thought. In fact he is the only guy I would consider cutting after preseason. He doesn't seem to be able to beat the other backup guys. I am seriously thinking of playing my backup MLB Johnny Frederick (50/56, good enough to be a starting MLB) I might also put Frederick up for trade and see I get any offer.
    Last edited by cyril; 08-01-2014, 10:53 PM.
    "The problem with life is that we have to live it from the beginning, but it makes sense only when seen from the end." - M. Kaplan in Chances are.

  • #2
    I admit it!!! hahaha

    Adderley is currently listed at 75 potential by my scout with only strength as a concern... Rest of the bars above 80...

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    • #3
      a little self evaluation of this draft:
      1.22 - Brandon Linder, G (28/39): if the projection holds, will be the biggest 1st-round bust in Denver's history. Especially painful considering we had the option to draft SDO's Adderley (63/68) instead but chose not to.... SDO 1, DEN 0.
      2.22 - Jameson Paulin, DE (27/37): looks like another bust. backup material.
      3.22 - Austin Lane, FB (40/44): fact that we drafted another FB this year in 3rd round told you how little confidence we had on Lane as starter. We are still keeping him because the new guy does not seem to be much better either for now. We will see and probably give time to both during the season.
      4.22 - Conner Thornburg, DE (35/55): the saving grace of this horrible draft of ours. Leapfrogged Paulin in the lineup. Looks to have enough potential to be a starter. Will be given chances after Buerfiend and 1st-rounder Covington went down.
      5.3 - Dave Gochanour, SS (32/36) & 5.22 - Dan Freeman, DT: OK backup material, not much complaint for these 5th rounders.
      6.22 - Craig Ratliff, RB (41/44): the only other good thing in this draft. Rating better than I hope for, two PR TDs late last season make him the default returner on the team. Running performance seems so-so but has secured the backup RB role this year.
      7.22 - Jackie Sprague - OLB - gone, good luck.

      it might be too early, but this projects to be the worst draft i have ever had in over 20 seasons in FFL....
      "The problem with life is that we have to live it from the beginning, but it makes sense only when seen from the end." - M. Kaplan in Chances are.

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      • #4
        wow, it's almost 7 seasons ago since i did this. should have kept up. anyway, looking back, all players from 2040 were long gone except 4th rounder DE thornburg. He's a starter now and putting up decent stats. let's review how I have done since then.

        2041 draft: DE Covington (1st) and CB McMillan (2nd) are still on the roster. Covington is only good on paper, never put up good stats. He's more suitable as a RDE in a 3-4 system, which denver does not run. sorry for ruining your potential Shawn.

        2042 draft: SS Crackel (1st) and TE Donaldson (2nd, drafted as FB) are starters. Again all other rounders are gone. Glad to pick up S Luen as an undrafted FA, who is our starting FS now.

        2043 draft: Glad to pick up G Lavoie at end of 1st round before NY Jets grabbed him. Better in ratings than I thought. shall carry the torch for our running game for the next half dozen years or so. high 2nd rounder LT Slusher is a botherline starter/rotation player. Takes so long to develop, 5th year and still only 60% developed. Should be able to replace Randle in a year or so, but probably is not the long term answer for LT. Another 2nd rounder OLB Gaudio is just a disappointment. Gone.

        2044 draft: DT Armstead is slowly getting better. didn't fill any big need at the time but the best player I could draft at that point. Did not want to draft a DT since the position is plentiful and cheap. 2nd rounder OLB Cobb is a OK starter, nothing too great. WR Green serves OK as our 2nd/3rd wideout but he's in the last year and asking for a big raise. Still contemplating whether to keep him next season or not.

        2045 draft: CB Clough (1st) and RT Hernandez (2nd) are both anchors of the team. RB Hawkes performed better than his ratings indicated, won a best offensive rookie award but ratings dropped big time. Still put up decent numbers last season. Keeping him for now.

        2046 draft: CB Navarro (1st) will replace Mcmillan this season as starter. Drafted two corners in a row at 1st round. not that i have planned for this but again. best player available. Good CBs seem to dominate the draft in recent years. OLB Gagnon looks like a bust again in my recent strings of bad LBs.

        looking back at these few drafts, I found that I am not a very good drafter, despite spending so much time analyzing/agonizing over every pick. didn't have many mid to low rounders that I am proud of. -sigh- Had to rely on FA to pick up good rotation guys.
        "The problem with life is that we have to live it from the beginning, but it makes sense only when seen from the end." - M. Kaplan in Chances are.

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