On going draft guide

[zbuckley]

I told Bob I wanted to do something share what I know so please post any comments or questions

http://www.fof-usfl.com/showthread.php?t=9795

[Red Zone]

Im bringing some of this here to make it easier to follow

I wanted to share my approach to the draft. It's my favorite part of this game and I think there's a lot to learn that can help people improve their drafting skills. The 1st thing to keep in mind is that draft prospects can have good and bad days in relation to their combine scores. If you look at the leagues fastest man scores Earl Jordan ran an impressive 4.29 which would qualify as a very good day. 5 years ago when was was drafted he ran a 4.41 so that should help give you an idea of what we're looking at when we're trying to figure out a prospect potential. Earl Jordan's underlying ability generates that 40 time not the other way around. basically he could run any where from 4.26 to 4.49 but those are extreme cases and generally he'll be around 4.4.

I would say my strategy looks at 4 different parts which are all pretty equally important in my mind.1st thing I check is static bars because they're so easy to spot initially. Static bars are bars that don't change with due to development or masking. The main static bar for QB's is sense rush and is related to their agility score. On the other had DEs and DT have two static bars Pass Rush Str and Pnsh Hitter. I look for high static bars because I know they're not going to change and often give clues as to what the other masked bars will do. After looking at the static bars I start checking combine scores and their relation to static bars. If a QB has a high sense rush bar but a combine score of 7.8 I know I need to look deeper at a prospect like that. Same thing with DE's. I remember when I drafted Walt Borders he had a score of 30 but off the chart Pass Rush Str and Pnsh Hitter bars. I know I don't have to worry about those bars dropping because they don't unmask like other bars. To a lesser degree I also consider my scouts opinion. I don't need to scout guys like CB Darrell Foust (#4 overall) but it's guys that fall into the middle of the combine range where the scouts opinion can be useful. I generally trust my instincts and about half the time i'm wrong

Couple other things I was thinking about. Always always interview no combine guys. Especially ones with nice looking static bars. They often provide the biggest return, granted there also the biggest risk but I generally interview most of the combine skippers. Kailan shared this one with me and I think there's some truth to it. We know scouts are wrong and it seems like there wrong a fair amount but when they're wrong it's more likely they're 180% off. So if you get a VU on a guy that you don't completely trust it's probably because he's actually VO. This little tidbit helps, if you get a guy that can't be VO and that's what your scout is telling you, it's likely he's actually VU.

I feel like i'm always picking on Steel so I need to say he had the best pick over in FFL during the last draft. A 2nd round RB who's going to be a monster. So looking again at the combine #s of Cooper I want to compare them against Becker. They both score 18 for Sole and Becker actually has less intelligence so if all the prospects followed some formula then you could safely say Becker would have higher RR skill. Cooper has a score of 52 and Becker 15. It's clear Cooper has the better skill. Cooper probably was out drinking the night before his test and barely could remember his own name taking the test. His score of 18 was just a bad day and doesn't correctly reflect his skill.


A very wise man once said that combines lie. It's not that combines lie, they can be misleading is all. I really think the draft is more art than science, maybe I'm just hoping my lack of testing ability isn't going to hurt me.

I would add to that by saying it another way.
Combines are easily misinterpreted.
A top shelf BPR WR could have a 40 time from 4.29 to 4.40. It's more likely that he would be closer to 4.29 but it's a distribution so any of those values are a possibility.
A crappy BPR WR could have a 40 from 4.40 to 4.53. He's more likely to be 4.53 but that doesn't mean he might hit closer for 4.40 on the distribution.

It's a game based on stats just like elections, direct mail and what you see on TV.
It's why you see the political polls say +/- 4 percentage points of error and if you see someone tied 50 -50 it could mean they are leading 54-46 or losing 46-54.

Zebs points on looking for key bars (on QB's like Sense Rush, Defense Punishing hitter etc) inaddition to the combines is the lens you have to interpret the combines thru.

[Red Zone]

Per Malcpows own research a WR with tru ratings of 500 accross the board (including BPR) can have a 4.40 (unlikely as I said, but in the possible range of values). That would equate to a 50 BPR.

So maybe I shouldn't say CRAPPY. Mediocre would be the right word.
But a 4.42 can in some cases get you a 30 ish BPR bar.

One thing I never asked Malc was did he do these with TCY loaded and licensed. Jim himself said there is code in FOF 2007 that needs some of the TCY code to accuratlly import draft classes.

Wr	Grade	Adjst	Dash	Sole	Strg	Agil	BJmp	Pspec
625	7.9	8.2	4.25	45	21	6.72	136	70
	4.8	5.0	4.43	18	14	7.01	122	52
600	7.7	8.0	4.25	44	21	6.72	136	70
	4.1	4.3	4.46	18	13	7.08	119	47
575	7.4	7.7	4.26	45	20	6.74	134	69
	3.4	3.5	4.49	18	11	7.15	117	42
550	6.8	7.1	4.37	45	16	6.87	133	67
	3.4	3.5	4.51	15	11	7.20	114	42
525	6.6	6.9	4.37	44	16	6.88	132	65
	3.4	3.5	4.51	14	11	7.20	114	42
500	6.4	6.7	4.40	41	15	6.94	130	60
	3.1	3.2	4.51	10	11	7.20	114	42
475	6.2	6.5	4.41	42	14	6.99	127	60
	2.4	2.5	4.51	9	11	7.20	114	33
450	5.8	6.0	4.42	40	14	7.01	126	59
	2.3	2.4	4.51	10	11	7.20	114	31
425	5.5	5.7	4.51	39	11	7.20	120	57
	2.3	2.4	4.66	9	7	7.40	108	23
400	4.4	4.6	4.52	35	10	7.22	119	45
	1.6	1.6	4.78	7	5	7.55	103	18
375	3.7	3.8	4.67	31	7	7.42	112	37
	1.2	1.2	4.80	7	5	7.60	102	17

Here's my hard stops that I basically don't mess with

QB Sole 28 Bench 10 Agil 7.8 Brdj 102 Pos Drl 67

RB's Sole 15 dash 4.65 bench 15 Agil 7.35

FB's (I don't like em in general)

WR Dash 4.52 Agil 7.20 Bench 11 Pos Dril 42

DE Dash 4.85 and Agil 7.6

DT Agil 7.8

MLB Agil 7.6 and Pos Drl 27

OLB Agil 7.4 and Pos Drl 27

CB Dash 4.52 Agil 7.2 and Pos drl 37

Very Interesting
Ive been one who avoided high volatility, especially in the early rounds, as much as possible
Ive also always looked at the bars i require in a player, without much regard for what the other bars look like
Sounds to me like ive had tunnel vision and probably could have drafted far better than i have with just a little more thought and analysis

Thanks Zeb and wolf, for sharing this

I encourage everyone to click on the link in the first post and read the entire post on the USFL Boards
There is a lot of info here that i believe many people simply do not know

[Steel]

I've been meaning to comment on this thread, but when it was first posted, my PC was down.

This info is taken from http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...ad.php?t=72313 and I found myself constantly checking this once I found it. He's added comments there as well and i'm just adding to it.

Lets look at QB's and breakdown what I look for initially. I've highlighted in red break points that I almost never break in the 1st couple rounds. So looking at this chart if a QB has a bench score of 9 his Long and Deep bars will basically never be above the 20's once he's fully unmasked. Now granted you can find productive QB's with less then 10 for bench but understand they won't be good at throwing the ball downfield. Now what's interesting is a QB with a bench score of 10 can have very good long and deep bars, as high 80. So looking at all the scores i've highlighted in red you have anticipate the related ability to the combine score will not be very good. Position score is another one basically never draft a QB that has a score below 67, that's a deal breaker for me. If he's score is 67 I know I need to look deeper and figure out where his abilities will be. His accurracy and timing could be in the 70s or 30s you have to look deeper with those guys.

This theory that QBs who have a bench score of less than 10 can't throw downfield is false. Meat had a QB in PFL who had a bench of 7 and he threw for 6000 yards a season routinely. One particular season, he completed 76/183 long balls for a 41.5% clip and 2659 yards.

[zbuckley]

I've been meaning to comment on this thread, but when it was first posted, my PC was down.



This theory that QBs who have a bench score of less than 10 can't throw downfield is false. Meat had a QB in PFL who had a bench of 7 and he threw for 6000 yards a season routinely. One particular season, he completed 76/183 long balls for a 41.5% clip and 2659 yards.

Ok how's this statement. A player with a bench score below 10 will not have good ratings in Long Passes and Deep Passes without the benefit of a volatility bump. What's the players long and deep pass ratings? You can still easily rack up yards throwing medium and short passes but that's not the point of the post.

[Steel]

Ok how's this statement. A player with a bench score below 10 will not have good ratings in Long Passes and Deep Passes without the benefit of a volatility bump.

He never had a volatility bump.

What's the players long and deep pass ratings?

24 - Long Passes, 17 - Deep Passes

You can still easily rack up yards throwing medium and short passes but that's not the point of the post.

It wasn't just short and medium passes. I just posted stats where he had 2600 yards out of 6500 from long/deep balls and completed them at a very effective 41% clip for the season.

[zbuckley]

24 - Long Passes, 17 - Deep Passes

The post was really only about ratings. I don't doubt what your saying but i'm also guessing he wasn't throwing to WR's rated below 40.

[Steel]

He had the best pair of WRs in the league. I understand the point of the post. But it is a clear indication that a bench score of 10< is not necessarily a detriment if you are looking for a QB. Especially if he has the miscellaneous passing bars.

[zbuckley]

He had the best pair of WRs in the league. I understand the point of the post. But it is a clear indication that a bench score of 10< is not necessarily a detriment if you are looking for a QB. Especially if he has the miscellaneous passing bars.

Which basically sounds like what I said initially

Now granted you can find productive QB's with less then 10 for bench but understand they won't be good at throwing the ball downfield

So how about this

Now granted you can find productive QB's with less then 10 for bench but understand they won't have good ratings at throwing the ball downfield?

[zbuckley]

I bet you're a philosophy professor.

[Steel]

Which basically sounds like what I said initially

Now granted you can find productive QB's with less then 10 for bench but understand they won't be good at throwing the ball downfield

So how about this

Now granted you can find productive QB's with less then 10 for bench but understand they won't have good ratings at throwing the ball downfield?

Much better.

I bet you're a philosophy professor.

Every woman in my life has the same issue with me.

[aston2171]

Hey, looks like some good stuff here gents! I'm a Patriots fan in real life and learning drafting tips from the Patriots sounds like nothing new lol. Thanks to zbuck, Red Zone, et al. for posting up resources like can be found in this forum

[zbuckley]

Hey, looks like some good stuff here gents! I'm a Patriots fan in real life and learning drafting tips from the Patriots sounds like nothing new lol. Thanks to zbuck, Red Zone, et al. for posting up resources like can be found in this forum

thanks. From what i've heard you probably didn't learn anything but it I had fun doing the thread.